López Obrador (AMLO), the candidate of the center-left Coalition for the Good of All has maintained an unshakable position: we won; we were robbed; we demand a recount; we won?t go home until we get one.

Using a different vocabulary, Felipe Calderón of the conservative National Action Party (PAN) has been saying that he too will resist for as long as it takes: we won; the process was fair; there is no need for a recount; case closed.

These unshakable positions lead to some uncomfortable questions. Assuming that Calderón is officially declared president-elect at some point over the next few weeks, can Mexicans look forward to six years of continuous AMLO-led civil disobedience? Will a less-than-legitimate Calderón presidential term be marked by an on-going disruption of civic and economic activity? Will the government find itself completely hamstrung, controlling just over one-third of the legislative votes, facing nothing but hostility from its opposition, unable to get anything done?

On the other hand, can AMLO keep it up? Will continued disobedience be understood and accepted by a population already tiring of the inconveniences of street and sidewalk blockades? Will the AMLO-led opposition be able to convincingly justify its actions (even to its own uneasy supporters) in making the country ungovernable? Who will be blamed for the forthcoming period of generalized ill-will?

DEFENDING DEMOCRACY

Up to now, AMLO must be credited with boosting the cause of electoral democracy in Mexico. From the beginning of this strange post-electoral period we are living through, he has been ?defending the vote.?

Among the left opposition, this has had a double meaning. On the one hand, he has been defending the victory he feels was won by his Coalition for the Good of All, but stolen by election-day fraud. On the other hand, in taking such militant action in support of an honest vote-count, he has been defending the importance of the voting process itself.

In leading civil disobedience in defense of the right to vote ? the right to participate in an honest election ? he has been defending the particular issues championed by his Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and simultaneously defending the process of voting.

He has presented himself as part of the diverse movement of left-of-center Latin American political actors ? ranging from moderate Chilean social democrats to revolutionary Venezuelan ?Bolivarians? ? who have embraced formal political democracy as the most effective path toward the traditional leftist goals of greater equality and social justice.

LEGITIMIZING THE PROCESS

In so doing he has legitimized the electoral process among a broad swath of Mexico?s dissident population that had been somewhat skeptical about the possibilities of achieving greater social justice by way of the ballot box.

As the protests escalate, however, ballot-box questions are being left behind. Last Sunday, for example, he announced four new ?actions of resistance? in support of ?five objectives,? none of which involved recounting or directly defending the vote.

The four actions include civil disobedience if and when Calderón is officially declared president-elect; a large demonstration against Vicente Fox?s September 1 State of the Nation Address; a separate celebration of the September 15 ?cry of independence? at Mexico City?s Zócalo; and a ?National Democratic Convention? to be held on Independence Day, September 16.

The ?five objectives? motivating the actions and disobedience are the standard PRD objectives: the fight against poverty and ?monstrous inequality?; the defense of the ?national patrimony? and public ownership of oil, electricity, public education, social security and natural resources; the right to unbiased information and an opening of the communications media; an end to corruption and impunity; and a ?renovation? of civic institutions.

DIRECT ACTION

AMLO seems to be moving, that is, toward a strategy of direct action disconnected from the electoral process he has up to now been defending.

Separate polls carried out this week by EL UNIVERSAL and Parametría show that while Mexicans still support a full recount, a diminishing number support continued civil disobedience, especially as the goals grow more amorphous.

Public opinion is complex: The process of voting remains highly valued; the confidence in the accuracy of the presidential vote count remains remarkably low; support for a full recount remains high; absent a recount, acceptance of a legitimate Calderón government remains low; absent the civil disobedience, support for the coalition?s ?five objectives? remains high.

Do we face six years of dissension and disobedience? It remains to be seen whether AMLO can hold his militant, disobedient movement together as it leaves behind the clear-cut demand of ?vote by vote, polling place-by-polling place,? and begins to champion demands that can be achieved only building a progressive consensus over a long time horizon.

frosen@cablevision.net.mx